Housing markets in Edmonton and Alberta will show modest growth next year, forecasters with the Canada Mortgage Housing Corp. predicted on Thursday.


"We're expecting to see improvements, but fairly moderate improvements," said Richard Goatcher, a senior market analyst with the Crown corporation.


"We saw activity really start to slow down in '08 and '09, and then last year was a year of improvements. We expect those improvements to continue."


Goatcher presented the CMHC forecast to a conference of real estate agents and civic employees at the Delta Edmonton South hotel.


CMHC predicts three-per-cent growth in resales, 11-per-cent growth in housing starts and 2.4-per-cent growth in average price for a house in Edmonton next year. However, CMHC anticipates listings of new houses to contract by 4.6 per cent over the same period.


The cautious optimism comes despite global economic uncertainty and a more modest overall out-look for Canada. Goatcher credits Alberta's energy sector with powering the province's economy and housing market.


"We're in a good economic situation here in the capital region, despite the headlines around the world about financial problems," he said. "That's largely because of the investments in the energy sector that are helping to support growth across the region."


Lai Sing Louie, a regional economist with CMHC, echoed Goatcher's view. "Overall, the economy is expanding and we expect it to continue to expand next year," he said. Louie predicted real GDP growth of 3.1 per cent in Alberta next year - a full percentage point above the CMHC's forecast for all of Canada.


That growth, according to Louie, will draw more people to Alberta, boosting demand for housing. "Housing market conditions are improving," he said. "We're expecting to see more sales, more housing starts next year, and prices rising a little bit quicker."


CMHC forecasts call for 15.3-per-cent annual growth in new housing starts for Alberta in 2012, and the average price of a resale to grow 2.3 per cent to $362,700.


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Alberta will be the only province next year to buck the national trend for housing starts across the country.

According to an October 2011 Housing Forecast report released Tuesday by Altus Group, only Alberta is expected to see an increase in housing starts in 2012.


Subdued economic growth will take the “sizzle” out of Canadian housing starts in 2012 and deteriorating global economic conditions leading to lower Canadian growth expectations will constrain housing demand across the country, said the report.


“Based on recent data, the Canadian housing sector is performing at a very high level, with elevated housing starts, steady prices, and steady resale markets. Interest rates are also no longer expected to increase over the next year,” said Peter Norman, chief economist, Altus Group. “But at the same time a number of risk factors are emerging, especially deteriorating economic conditions and tighter mortgage rules. Canadians can expect lower levels of housing construction in most areas of the country next year.”


But the report said Alberta has seen job conditions and interprovincial migration rise sharply this year at the expense of Ontario and British Columbia, positively affecting housing demand next year.


Alberta will see housing starts in 2012 rise to 27,800 units from 24,881 this year. In 2010, there were 27,088 housing starts in the province.

Across Canada, housing starts will hit 192,000 units this year and dip to 181,600 units in 2012. There were 189,930 starts in 2010.


The Altus Group report said only Calgary and Edmonton, among major markets in Canada, will see a rise in housing starts next year. Calgary will jump to 9,400 units from 8,400 in 2011 while Edmonton will see a rise to 9,400 units as well from 8,900 this year.


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westZone 10 -  Crestwood, Parkview, Valleyview, Laurier Heights

Zone 11 -  Glenora

Zone 20 -  Aldergrove, Belmead, Callingwood, Dechene, Donsdale, Gariepy, Hawthorne Hill, Jamieson Place, Le Perle,

Lymburn, Ormsby Place, River Valley Ctry, Sherwood, Summerlea, Terra Losa, Thorncliffe, Vistula, Westridge

Zone 22 -  Emwood, Glenwood, Jasper Park, Lynwood, Meadowlark Park, Oleskiw, Patricia Heights, Quesnell Heights, Rio Terrace

Zone 58 -  Breckenridge, Greens, Glastenbury, The Hamptons, Normandeau Gardens, Potter Green, Lewis Estates, Triple A Acres




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Edmonton led the province in housing startups last month, new Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. figures showed Tuesday.


Housing starts totalled 1,250 units for October in the Edmonton metropolitan area. The Calgary metropolitan area, Alberta's secondhottest housing construction market, added 981 units in the month.


Richard Goatcher, a senior market analyst with CMHC, attributed Edmonton's performance chiefly to apartment construction. "We had an over five-fold increase in apartment starts," he said. "We went from 100 starts last October to 550 this October."


Multi-unit dwellings heavily influence these scores, said Goatcher, because the start of a single project can count as hundreds of startups.


"Projects that are 150, 200 units, you get a couple of them starting in any particular month and it will help punch up your numbers pretty fast," he said.


Edmonton will lead the province in housing startups for the foreseeable future, said Alberta Treasury Branch economist Dan Sumner.


"All of the city-level economic indicators point to that direction," he said.


"Edmonton has added almost double the number of jobs as Calgary over the last 13 months."

The reason, said Sumner, is Edmonton's close relationship with the oilsands, where strong oil prices drive investment and activity.


"Through its relationship to the oilsands, Edmonton is more leveraged to what happens to oil prices, whereas in Calgary it's a little more dependent on oil and natural gas."


Though total October startups in Edmonton outnumber those from the same month last year, 2011's year-to-date score of 7,960 still lags behind the total of 8,646 in the first 10 months of 2010.


Goatcher attributed the slowdown to difficulties in construction. Construction firms "had some inventory issues at the beginning of the year, and then they got hit with some poor building conditions in June with all that wet weather," he said.

"They got behind and they really haven't caught up."


The CMHC says starts across Canada declined slightly in October behind flagging construction of single detached homes.


Goatcher expects significant startup growth in Edmonton next year.


"Alberta in general and Edmonton in particular has probably got a better outlook than most areas across the country and across the world. So we're anticipating improvements in activity in the Capital Region."


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NWZone 01 -  Athlone, Calder, Kensington, Lauderdale, Rosslyn, Wellington

Zone 04 -  Dovercourt, Hagman Est Ind, Prince Charles, Sherbrooks

Zone 07 -  Inglewood, North Glenora, Westmount, Woodcroft

Zone 21 -  Britannia,/Youngstown, Canora, Grovenor, High Park/Edm, Jasper Place, Mayfield, McQueen

Zone 27 -  Barnow, Batyrn, Beaumaris, Caenarvon, Canossa, Carlisle, Carlton, Chambery, Cumberland, Dunluse,

Elisnore, Hudson, Lorelei, Oxford, Palisades, Pembina, Rapperswill, Rural North West

Zone 59 -  Rural West Big Lake, Westview Village, Mobile Park, Winterburn Ind East

Zone 40




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Edmonton, November 2, 2011: In October the streets are overrun with ghoulish figures and scary characters but homeowners had no reason to fear the local housing market. Average prices for all types of residential property softened in October as part of the seasonal trend. In October the average* price of a single family detached home dipped lower than the two previous years and the previous month. The average price of a condo also dropped below the two previous same-month levels and was $15,500 below the price at the start of 2011. Over-all, the average residential price dropped to the lowest point since March but was $2,500 above the same figure in 2010.

  • SFD average price $362,897 (down 3.4% m/m), median price $346,500
  • Condo average price $223,892 (down 4.4% m/m), median price $210,500
  • Duplex/row house average price $309,474 (up 4.7% m/m) , median price $308,000
  • All-residential average price $319,985 (down 3.9% m/m), median price $312,500

“The balanced market continues as evidenced by the same number of residential sales in October 2011 and October 2010,” said REALTORS® Association of Edmonton President Chris Mooney. “Although there are initial signs of labour shortages in the service sector, we are optimistic about real estate performance. As job openings increase in Alberta, people will again start to move here and drive real estate sales up.”


The sales-to-listing ratio was up 2% to 54% in October and the days-on-market figure rose from 56 in September to 59 in October. Residential listings were down in October compared to last year and as a result the available inventory dropped from 8,062 in September to 7,296 at the end of October. There were 1,170 residential sales in October compared to 1,169 in October 2010. Listings dropped from 2,218 in October 2010 to 2,166 this year.





NEZone 02 -  Evansdale, Northmount, Glengarry, Klikenny, Kildare, Delwood, Mcleod, York,

Cassleman, Miller, Balwin, Belvedere, Killarney, Elmwood Park, Dalton

Zone 03 -  North Swale, Matt Berry, Hollick Kenyon, Brintnell

Zone 06 -  Newton, Montrose

Zone 09 -  Highlands, Edmonton Northlands, Virginia Park, Cromdale

Zone 23 -  Berman, Abbotsfield, Beacon Heights, Beverly Heights, Rundle Heights

Zone 28 -  Ozerna, Mayliewan, Belle Rive, Eaux Claite, Schonsee, Klarvatten, Lago Lindo, Crystallina Nera, Joviz

Zone 35 -  Kirkness, Fraser, Hairsine, Clareview Campus, Bannerman, Sifton Park, Belmont, Kernohan, Homesteader,Overlanders, Canon Ridge

Zone 43 -  Clover Bar Area, East Edmonton

Zone 50

Zone 51



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SEZone 17 -  Argyll, Avonmore, Hazeldean, King Edward Park, Ritchie.

Zone 18 -  Bonniedoon, Cloverdale, Holyrood, Idlewylde, Kenilworth, Ottwell, Strathearn.

Zone 19 -  Capilano, Forest Heights, Fulton Place, Gold Bar, Terrace Heights, Millwoods.

Zone 29 -  Bisset, Crawford Plains, Daly Grove, Ekota, Greenview, Hillview, Jackson Heights, Kameyosek, Kiniski Gardens, Lee Ridge, Mensia, Mayonohk, Michaels Park, Millwoods Park, Minchau, Pollard Meadows, Richfield, Sakaw, Satoo, Tawa, Tipaskan, Tweddle Place, Weinlos

Zone 30 -  Larkspur, The Meadows, Silver Berry, Wildrose

Zone 41

Zone 42

Zone 53

Zone 54




Edmonton South East Homes For Sale

Edmonton South East Condos For Sale

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SWZone 14 -  Brander Gardens, Brookside, Brookeside, Buylea Heights, Carter Cresc, Falconer Heights, Haddow, Henderson Estates, Hodgson, Legar, Ogilvie Ridge.

Zone 15 -  Allendale, Belgravia, Empire Park, Garneau, Grandview Heights, Landsdown, Lendrum Place, Malmo Plains, McKernan, Park Allen, Pleasant View, Queen Alexandra, Strathcona, Windsor Park.

Zone 16 -  Aspen Gardens, Royal Gardens, Rideau Park, Duggan, Greenfield, Westbrook Estate, Sweet Grass, Blue Quill Estates, Steinhauer, Ermineskin, Skyrattler, Keheewin, Twin Brooks, and Bearspaw.

Zone 55 -  Blackburne, MacEwan, and Richford

Zone 56 -  Windermere Estates

Zone 57 -  Woodbend Estates




Edmonton South West Homes for Sale

Edmonton South West Condos for Sale

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